The yardstick: convenience, not popularity
Legalization polls well almost everywhere. That has not been the thing that decides which state goes next. What decides it is how short the path is from bill to signature. Has one chamber already passed it? Is the governor for it or against it? Do neighboring states already sell it, so the border argument is live? That is convenience, and in 2025 it is doing more work than public opinion.
So I graded the field on four things: whether a bill has already cleared one chamber, whether the governor has said yes, whether there is a revenue or border reason to move, and whether the state has a medical program to build on. Here is the pick, then the rest of the board.
next states to legalize recreational cannabis
The pick: Pennsylvania
If I had to bet on one state legalizing adult use in 2025, it is Pennsylvania. Gov. Josh Shapiro has put adult-use revenue in his budget proposal and kept pushing it after the legislature ignored him. The state is ringed by legal markets. Ohio, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York all sell recreational cannabis, and Delaware is close behind. Pennsylvanians can drive to any of them.
Cannabis Legalization 2026: Upcoming States and the Shift Towards Convenience
That border math is the convenience argument in its purest form. The state loses the sale either way. The remaining obstacle is the Senate, where Republicans control the chamber and have preferred a medical expansion instead. That is a real wall. It is also a shorter wall than the ones in most other states, because the governor's office is already on the other side of it.
The rest of the board
New Hampshire
Geography says yes. New Hampshire is the last state in New England without legal adult use, and it is surrounded by states that have it. The House has passed legalization more than once. The Senate has killed it each time, and Gov. Kelly Ayotte has given no sign she would sign a broad bill. Convenience cuts both ways here, and the Senate side is the wrong way.
Hawaii
The Senate passed a legalization bill in 2024 and the House let it die. Gov. Josh Green supports legalization, which puts two of the three pieces in place. The House is the holdout, and it has been for years. Hawaii's medical program is small and its tourism economy creates a different kind of pressure than a border state faces. I rank it second, but only because the Senate is already there.
Wisconsin
Gov. Tony Evers has put legalization in budget requests and Republicans have pulled it out every time. What Republicans have floated is medical use, not adult use. If Wisconsin moves in 2025, expect a narrow medical bill and nothing more. That still counts, but it is not the same product.
The medical-only lane
Wyoming, Kansas, and South Carolina are the places where medical cannabis is the live question. South Carolina's Senate has passed a medical bill before and the House has stalled it. Kansas has a similar pattern. Wyoming has resisted both medical and adult use for years. Any of the three could break through in a session where a single chamber flips its vote, and none of them is a good bet for full adult use this year.
What I check before I call a state
- Has a legalization bill already passed at least one chamber?
- Has the governor said he or she would sign it?
- Do bordering states already sell it?
- Is there a medical program to convert?
- Is there a budget hole that legalization revenue is supposed to fill?
Pennsylvania hits four of five. Hawaii hits three. Wisconsin hits two, and one of them is a governor whose legislature ignores him. That is the whole comparison.
What would change my mind
Two things. If the Pennsylvania Senate puts a medical expansion on the governor's desk and calls it done, the adult-use window closes for the session. And if a state I ranked low moves a bill out of committee with a veto-proof margin, the ranking is wrong. Sessions move in the spring and stall by summer. Watch the committee calendars, not the polls.